Using a Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Markov Model to Evaluate Diagnostics for Trachoma
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In disease control or elimination programs, diagnostics are essential for assessing the impact of interventions, refining treatment strategies, and minimizing the waste of scarce resources. Although high-performance tests are desirable, increased accuracy is frequently accompanied by a requirement for more elaborate infrastructure, which is often not feasible in the developing world. These challenges are pertinent to mapping, impact monitoring, and surveillance in trachoma elimination programs. To help inform rational design of diagnostics for trachoma elimination, we outline a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov modeling approach and apply it to 2 longitudinal cohort studies of trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania (2000–2002) and The Gambia (2001–2002) to provide simultaneous inferences about the true population prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and disease and the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of 3 diagnostic tests for C. trachomatis infection. Estimates were obtained by using data collected before and after mass azithromycin administration. Such estimates are particularly important for trachoma because of the absence of a true “gold standard” diagnostic test for C. trachomatis. Estimated transition probabilities provide useful insights into key epidemiologic questions about the persistence of disease and the clearance of infection as well as the required frequency of surveillance in the postelimination setting.
Date Issued
2013-04-01
Date Acceptance
2012-08-08
Citation
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2013, 177 (9), pp.913-922
ISSN
0002-9262
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Start Page
913
End Page
922
Journal / Book Title
American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
177
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2013 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000318576300009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
G0600719B
G0902130
MR/K010174/1B
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH, SCI
diagnosis
latent Markov model
multilevel
nonparametric model
trachoma
OCULAR CHLAMYDIAL INFECTION
POLYMERASE-CHAIN-REACTION
SINGLE-DOSE AZITHROMYCIN
DISEASE PROGRESSION
ACTIVE TRACHOMA
COMMUNITY
ANTIBIOTICS
REGRESSION
TESTS
Anti-Bacterial Agents
Azithromycin
Chlamydia trachomatis
Disease Eradication
Endemic Diseases
Gambia
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Markov Chains
Models, Biological
Population Surveillance
Prevalence
Statistics, Nonparametric
Tanzania
Trachoma
Epidemiology
11 Medical And Health Sciences
01 Mathematical Sciences
Publication Status
Published