A probabilistic approach for the study of epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases: basic model and properties
File(s)accepted_manuscript.pdf (32.73 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Giral-Barajas, José
Herrera-Nolasco, Carlos Ignacio
Herrera-Valdez, Marco Arieli
López, Sergio I
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The dynamics of epidemiological phenomena associated to infectious diseases have long been modelled taking different approaches. However, recent pandemic events exposed many areas of opportunity to improve the existing models. We develop a stochastic model based on the idea that transitions between epidemiological stages are alike sampling processes that may involve more than one subset of the population or may be mostly dependent on time intervals defined by pathological or clinical criteria. We apply the model to simulate epidemics, analyse the final distribution of the case fatality ratio, and define a basic reproductive number to determine the existence of a probabilistic phase transition for the dynamics. The resulting modelling scheme is robust, easy to implement, and can readily lend itself for extensions aimed at answering questions that emerge from close examination of data trends, such as those emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, and other infectious diseases.
Date Issued
2023-09-07
Date Acceptance
2023-07-03
Citation
Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2023, 572
ISSN
0022-5193
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume
572
Copyright Statement
Copyright © Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111576
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
111576
Date Publish Online
2023-07-10