Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data
Author(s)
Dawson, PM
Werkman, M
Brooks-Pollock, E
Tildesley, MJ
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.
Date Issued
2015-05-06
Date Acceptance
2015-04-13
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015, 282 (1808)
ISSN
0962-8452
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume
282
Issue
1808
Copyright Statement
© 2015 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Subjects
epidemics
livestock networks
partial data
Animals
Cattle
Cattle Diseases
Developing Countries
Epidemics
Great Britain
Models, Theoretical
United States
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical And Health Sciences
07 Agricultural And Veterinary Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
20150205