Analytic Long-Term Forecasting with Periodic Gaussian Processes
File(s)paper.pdf (700.5 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
HajiGhassemi, N
Deisenroth, MP
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Gaussian processes are a state-of-the-art method for learning models from data. Data with an underlying periodic structure appears in many areas, e.g., in climatology or robotics. It is often important to predict the long-term evolution of such a time series, and to take the inherent periodicity explicitly into account. In a Gaussian process, periodicity can be accounted for by an appropriate kernel choice. However, the standard periodic kernel does not allow for analytic long-term forecasting. To address this shortcoming, we re-parametrize the periodic kernel, which, in combination with a double approximation, allows for analytic longterm forecasting of a periodic state evolution with Gaussian processes. Our model allows for probabilistic long-term forecasting of periodic processes, which can be valuable in Bayesian decision making, optimal control, reinforcement learning, and robotics.
Date Issued
2014-04-21
Citation
2014
Copyright Statement
© 2014 The Authors.
Description
22.08.14 KB. Re-published, title change.
Source
International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
Source Place
Reykjavik, Iceland
Publication Status
Accepted
Start Date
2014-04-21
Finish Date
2014-04-25