Nudging the particle filter
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Published version
Author(s)
Akyildiz, Ömer Deniz
Míguez, Joaquín
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We investigate a new sampling scheme aimed at improving the performance of particle filters whenever (a) there is a significant mismatch between the assumed model dynamics and the actual system, or (b) the posterior probability tends to concentrate in relatively small regions of the state space. The proposed scheme pushes some particles toward specific regions where the likelihood is expected to be high, an operation known as nudging in the geophysics literature. We reinterpret nudging in a form applicable to any particle filtering scheme, as it does not involve any changes in the rest of the algorithm. Since the particles are modified, but the importance weights do not account for this modification, the use of nudging leads to additional bias in the resulting estimators. However, we prove analytically that nudged particle filters can still attain asymptotic convergence with the same error rates as conventional particle methods. Simple analysis also yields an alternative interpretation of the nudging operation that explains its robustness to model errors. Finally, we show numerical results that illustrate the improvements that can be attained using the proposed scheme. In particular, we present nonlinear tracking examples with synthetic data and a model inference example using real-world financial data.
Date Issued
2020-03
Date Acceptance
2019-07-01
Citation
Statistics and Computing, 2020, 30 (2), pp.305-330
ISSN
0960-3174
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
305
End Page
330
Journal / Book Title
Statistics and Computing
Volume
30
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2019. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
License URL
Identifier
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11222-019-09884-y
Subjects
Statistics & Probability
0104 Statistics
0802 Computation Theory and Mathematics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-07-13