A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Date Issued
2018-11-13
Date Acceptance
2018-10-03
Citation
Geoscientific Model Development, 2018, 11 (11), pp.4537-4562
ISSN
1991-959X
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
4537
End Page
4562
Journal / Book Title
Geoscientific Model Development
Volume
11
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed underthe Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000449985100002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
CARBON-CYCLE MODELS
TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION
GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
SIMPLER MODEL
RANGE SHIFTS
IMPACTS
VEGETATION
FUTURE
Publication Status
Published