Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of
solar radiation by 0.22±0.07Wm−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during
that period (0.44Wm−2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud
trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03Wm−2 per decade), which jointly account for 74% of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08Wm−2 per decade), owing to a
poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative
trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions
close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance
trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.
solar radiation by 0.22±0.07Wm−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during
that period (0.44Wm−2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud
trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03Wm−2 per decade), which jointly account for 74% of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08Wm−2 per decade), owing to a
poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative
trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions
close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance
trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.
Date Issued
2026-03-26
Date Acceptance
2026-02-09
Citation
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 2026, 26 (6), pp.4153-4171
ISSN
1680-7316
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
4153
End Page
4171
Journal / Book Title
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Volume
26
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
License URL
Identifier
10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2026-03-26