Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Objective To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).Design Prospective observational cohort study.Setting International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium—ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020.Participants Adults (age >=18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction.Main outcome measure In-hospital mortality.Results 35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73).Conclusions An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations.Study registration ISRCTN66726260
Editor(s)
Baillie, J Kenneth
Semple, Malcolm G
Openshaw, Peter JM
Carson, Gail
Alex, Beatrice
Bach, Benjamin
Barclay, Wendy S
Bogaert, Debby
Chand, Meera
Cooke, Graham S
Docherty, Annemarie B
Dunning, Jake
da Silva Filipe, Ana
Fletcher, Tom
Green, Christopher A
Harrison, Ewen M
Hiscox, Julian A
Ho, Antonia Ying Wai
Horby, Peter W
Ijaz, Samreen
Khoo, Saye
Klenerman, Paul
Law, Andrew
Lim, Wei Shen
Mentzer, Alexander J
Merson, Laura
Meynert, Alison M
Noursadeghi, Mahdad
Moore, Shona C
Palmarini, Massimo
Paxton, William A
Pollakis, Georgios
Price, Nicholas
Rambaut, Andrew
Robertson, David L
Russell, Clark D
Sancho-Shimizu, Vanessa
Scott, Janet T
Sigfrid, Louise
Solomon, Tom
Sriskandan, Shiranee
Stuart, David
Summers, Charlotte
Tedder, Richard S
Thomson, Emma C
Thwaites, Ryan S
Turtle, Lance CW
Zambon, Maria
Hardwick, Hayley
Donohue, Chloe
Ewins, Jane
Oosthuyzen, Wilna
Griffiths, Fiona
Norman, Lisa
Pius, Riinu
Drake, Tom M
Fairfield, Cameron J
Knight, Stephen
Mclean, Kenneth A
Murphy, Derek
Shaw, Catherine A
Dalton, Jo
Girvan, Michelle
Saviciute, Egle
Roberts, Stephanie
Harrison, Janet
Marsh, Laura
Connor, Marie
Halpin, Sophie
Jackson, Clare
Gamble, Carrol
Leeming, Gary
Law, Andrew
Hendry, Ross
Scott-Brown, James
Greenhalf, William
Shaw, Victoria
McDonald, Sarah
Ahmed, Katie A
Armstrong, Jane A
Ashworth, Milton
Asiimwe, Innocent G
Bakshi, Siddharth
Barlow, Samantha L
Booth, Laura
Brennan, Benjamin
Bullock, Katie
Catterall, Benjamin WA
Clark, Jordan J
Clarke, Emily A
Cole, Sarah
Cooper, Louise
Cox, Helen
Davis, Christopher
Dincarslan, Oslem
Dunn, Chris
Dyer, Philip
Elliott, Angela
Evans, Anthony
Fisher, Lewis WS
Foster, Terry
Garcia-Dorival, Isabel
Greenhalf, Willliam
Gunning, Philip
Hartley, Catherine
Ho, Antonia
Jensen, Rebecca L
Jones, Christopher B
Jones, Trevor R
Khandaker, Shadia
King, Katharine
Kiy, Robyn T
Koukorava, Chrysa
Lake, Annette
Lant, Suzannah
Latawiec, Diane
Lavelle-Langham, L
Lefteri, Daniella
Lett, Lauren
Livoti, Lucia A
Mancini, Maria
McDonald, Sarah
McEvoy, Laurence
McLauchlan, John
Metelmann, Soeren
Miah, Nahida S
Middleton, Joanna
Mitchell, Joyce
Moore, Shona C
Murphy, Ellen G
Penrice-Randal, Rebekah
Pilgrim, Jack
Prince, Tessa
Reynolds, Will
Ridley, P Matthew
Sales, Debby
Shaw, Victoria E
Shears, Rebecca K
Small, Benjamin
Subramaniam, Krishanthi S
Szemiel, Agnieska
Taggart, Aislynn
Tanianis-Hughes, Jolanta
Thomas, Jordan
Trochu, Erwan
van Tonder, Libby
Wilcock, Eve
Zhang, J Eunice
Adeniji, Kayode
Agranoff, Daniel
Agwuh, Ken
Ail, Dhiraj
Alegria, Ana
Angus, Brian
Ashish, Abdul
Atkinson, Dougal
Bari, Shahedal
Barlow, Gavin
Barnass, Stella
Barrett, Nicholas
Bassford, Christopher
Baxter, David
Beadsworth, Michael
Bernatoniene, Jolanta
Berridge, John
Best, Nicola
Bothma, Pieter
Brealey, David
Brittain-Long, Robin
Bulteel, Naomi
Burden, Tom
Burtenshaw, Andrew
Caruth, Vikki
Chadwick, David
Chambler, Duncan
Chee, Nigel
Child, Jenny
Chukkambotla, Srikanth
Clark, Tom
Collini, Paul
Cosgrove, Catherine
Cupitt, Jason
Cutino-Moguel, Maria-Teresa
Dark, Paul
Dawson, Chris
Dervisevic, Samir
Donnison, Phil
Douthwaite, Sam
DuRand, Ingrid
Dushianthan, Ahilanadan
Dyer, Tristan
Evans, Cariad
Eziefula, Chi
Fegan, Chrisopher
Finn, Adam
Fullerton, Duncan
Garg, Sanjeev
Garg, Sanjeev
Garg, Atul
Godden, Jo
Goldsmith, Arthur
Graham, Clive
Hardy, Elaine
Hartshorn, Stuart
Harvey, Daniel
Havalda, Peter
Hawcutt, Daniel B
Hobrok, Maria
Hodgson, Luke
Holme, Anita
Hormis, Anil
Jacobs, Michael
Jain, Susan
Jennings, Paul
Kaliappan, Agilan
Kasipandian, Vidya
Kegg, Stephen
Kelsey, Michael
Kendall, Jason
Kerrison, Caroline
Kerslake, Ian
Koch, Oliver
Koduri, Gouri
Koshy, George
Laha, Shondipon
Larkin, Susan
Leiner, Tamas
Lillie, Patrick
Limb, James
Linnett, Vanessa
Little, Jeff
MacMahon, Michael
MacNaughton, Emily
Mankregod, Ravish
Masson, Huw
Matovu, Elijah
McCullough, Katherine
McEwen, Ruth
Meda, Manjula
Mills, Gary
Minton, Jane
Mirfenderesky, Mariyam
Mohandas, Kavya
Mok, Quen
Moon, James
Moore, Elinoor
Morgan, Patrick
Morris, Craig
Mortimore, Katherine
Moses, Samuel
Mpenge, Mbiye
Mulla, Rohinton
Murphy, Michael
Nagel, Megan
Nagarajan, Thapas
Nelson, Mark
Otahal, Igor
Pais, Mark
Panchatsharam, Selva
Paraiso, Hassan
Patel, Brij
Pepperell, Justin
Peters, Mark
Phull, Mandeep
Pintus, Stefania
Pooni, Jagtur Singh
Post, Frank
Price, David
Prout, Rachel
Rae, Nikolas
Reschreiter, Henrik
Reynolds, Tim
Richardson, Neil
Roberts, Mark
Roberts, Devender
Rose, Alistair
Rousseau, Guy
Ryan, Brendan
Saluja, Taranprit
Shah, Aarti
Shanmuga, Prad
Sharma, Anil
Shawcross, Anna
Sizer, Jeremy
Smith, Richard
Snelson, Catherine
Spittle, Nick
Staines, Nikki
Stambach, Tom
Stewart, Richard
Subudhi, Pradeep
Szakmany, Tamas
Tatham, Kate
Thomas, Jo
Thompson, Chris
Thompson, Robert
Tridente, Ascanio
Tupper-Carey, Darell
Twagira, Mary
Ustianowski, Andrew
Vallotton, Nick
Vincent-Smith, Lisa
Visuvanathan, Shico
Vuylsteke, Alan
Waddy, Sam
Wake, Rachel
Walden, Andrew
Welters, Ingeborg
Whitehouse, Tony
Whittaker, Paul
Whittington, Ashley
Wijesinghe, Meme
Williams, Martin
Wilson, Lawrence
Wilson, Sarah
Winchester, Stephen
Wiselka, Martin
Wolverson, Adam
Wooton, Daniel G
Workman, Andrew
Yates, Bryan
Young, Peter
Date Issued
2020-09-09
Date Acceptance
2020-09-01
Citation
BMJ, 2020, 370
ISSN
1759-2151
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
Journal / Book Title
BMJ
Volume
370
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work,
for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work,
for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
UKRI MRC COVID-19 Rapid Response Call
Identifier
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3339
Grant Number
NF-SI-0513-10150
HPRU-2012-10064
MR/R005982/1
MR/R005982/1
RDF04
NIHR201385
MC_PC19025
Subjects
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus
Clinical Protocols
Cohort Studies
Coronavirus Infections
Female
Hospital Mortality
Hospitalization
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
Predictive Value of Tests
ROC Curve
Risk Assessment
Survival Rate
United Kingdom
ISARIC4C investigators
General & Internal Medicine
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Notes
elocation-id: m3339
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-09-09