Inferring a causal relationship between environmental factors and respiratory infections using convergent cross-mapping
Author(s)
Chen, Daipeng
Sun, Xiaodan
Cheke, Robert A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The incidence of respiratory infections in the population is related to many factors, among which environmental factors such as air quality, temperature, and humidity have attracted much attention. In particular, air pollution has caused widespread discomfort and concern in developing countries. Although the correlation between respiratory infections and air pollution is well known, establishing causality between them remains elusive. In this study, by conducting theoretical analysis, we updated the procedure of performing the extended convergent cross-mapping (CCM, a method of causal inference) to infer the causality between periodic variables. Consistently, we validated this new procedure on the synthetic data generated by a mathematical model. For real data in Shaanxi province of China in the period of 1 January 2010 to 15 November 2016, we first confirmed that the refined method is applicable by investigating the periodicity of influenza-like illness cases, an air quality index, temperature, and humidity through wavelet analysis. We next illustrated that air quality (quantified by AQI), temperature, and humidity affect the daily influenza-like illness cases, and, in particular, the respiratory infection cases increased progressively with increased AQI with a time delay of 11 days.
Date Issued
2023-05-17
Date Acceptance
2023-05-13
Citation
Entropy: international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies, 2023, 25 (5)
ISSN
1099-4300
Publisher
MDPI AG
Journal / Book Title
Entropy: international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies
Volume
25
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000996649700001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
causality
CHAOS
CHINA
DRIVERS
environmental factors
HEART-DISEASE
IMPACT
INFLUENZA
LUNG
MAGNETITE
nonlinear system
PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION
Physical Sciences
Physics
Physics, Multidisciplinary
respiratory infection
RISK
Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
807
Date Publish Online
2023-05-17