A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage
File(s)
Published version
Supporting information
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Geologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere1,2. However, the storage potential is not unlimited3,4. Here we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 (1,290–2,710) Gt of CO2 storage through a risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps the possible global temperature reduction to 0.7 °C (0.35–1.2 °C, including storage estimate and climate response uncertainty). The countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.
Date Issued
2025-09-04
Date Acceptance
2025-07-17
Citation
Nature, 2025, 645 (8079), pp.124-132
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
124
End Page
132
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
645
Issue
8079
Copyright Statement
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/40903604
PII: 10.1038/s41586-025-09423-y
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2025-09-03