Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Seasonal influenza has considerable impact around the world, both economically and in mortality among risk groups, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the essential mechanisms and their parametrization. In this paper, we identify a number of characteristic features of influenza incidence time series in temperate regions, including ranges of annual attack rates and outbreak durations. By constraining the output of simple models to match these characteristic features, we investigate the role played by population heterogeneity, multiple strains, cross-immunity and the rate of strain evolution in the generation of incidence time series. Results indicate that an age-structured model with non-random mixing and co-circulating strains are both required to match observed time-series data. Our work gives estimates of the seasonal peak basic reproduction number, R0, in the range 1.6–3. Estimates of R0 are strongly correlated with the timescale for waning of immunity to current circulating seasonal influenza strain, which we estimate is between 3 and 8 years. Seasonal variation in transmissibility is largely confined to 15–30% of its mean value. While population heterogeneity and cross-immunity are required mechanisms, the degree of heterogeneity and cross-immunity is not tightly constrained. We discuss our findings in the context of other work fitting to seasonal influenza data.
Date Issued
2012-02-07
Date Acceptance
2011-06-06
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2012, 9 (67), pp.304-312
ISSN
1742-5662
Publisher
Royal Society, The
Start Page
304
End Page
312
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
9
Issue
67
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000298380100010&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
G0600719B
G0800596
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
seasonal influenza
multiple strains
model comparison
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
TIME-SERIES
EVOLUTION
DISEASES
INFECTION
MORTALITY
TECUMSEH
ILLNESS
IMPACT
VIRUS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2011-12-21