REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence
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Working paper
Author(s)
Type
Working Paper
Abstract
Background and Methods: England entered its third national lockdown of the COVID-19
pandemic on 6th January 2021 with the aim of reducing the daily number of deaths and
pressure on healthcare services. The real-time assessment of community transmission study
(REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from randomly selected people in England in
order to describe patterns of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. Here, we report data from round 9a
of REACT-1 for swabs collected between 4th and 13th February 2021.
Results: Out of 85,473 tested-swabs, 378 were positive. Overall weighted prevalence of
infection in the community in England was 0.51%, a fall of more than two thirds since our last
report (round 8) in January 2021 when 1.57% of people tested positive. We estimate a
halving time of 14.6 days and a reproduction number R of 0.72, based on the difference in
prevalence between the end of round 8 and the beginning of round 9. Although prevalence
fell in all nine regions of England over the same period, there was greater uncertainty in the
trend for North West, North East, and Yorkshire and The Humber. Prevalence fell
substantially across all age groups with highest prevalence among 18- to 24-year olds at
0.89% (0.47%, 1.67%) and those aged 5 to12 years at 0.86% (0.60%, 1.24%). Large
household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated
with increased prevalence. Healthcare and care home workers were more likely to test
positive compared to other workers.
Conclusions: There is a strong decline in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England among the
general population five to six weeks into lockdown, but prevalence remains high: at levels
similar to those observed in late September 2020. Also, the number of COVID-19 cases in
hospitals is higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020. The effects of easing of
social distancing when we transition out of lockdown need to be closely monitored to avoid a
resurgence in infections and renewed pressure on health services.
pandemic on 6th January 2021 with the aim of reducing the daily number of deaths and
pressure on healthcare services. The real-time assessment of community transmission study
(REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from randomly selected people in England in
order to describe patterns of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. Here, we report data from round 9a
of REACT-1 for swabs collected between 4th and 13th February 2021.
Results: Out of 85,473 tested-swabs, 378 were positive. Overall weighted prevalence of
infection in the community in England was 0.51%, a fall of more than two thirds since our last
report (round 8) in January 2021 when 1.57% of people tested positive. We estimate a
halving time of 14.6 days and a reproduction number R of 0.72, based on the difference in
prevalence between the end of round 8 and the beginning of round 9. Although prevalence
fell in all nine regions of England over the same period, there was greater uncertainty in the
trend for North West, North East, and Yorkshire and The Humber. Prevalence fell
substantially across all age groups with highest prevalence among 18- to 24-year olds at
0.89% (0.47%, 1.67%) and those aged 5 to12 years at 0.86% (0.60%, 1.24%). Large
household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated
with increased prevalence. Healthcare and care home workers were more likely to test
positive compared to other workers.
Conclusions: There is a strong decline in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England among the
general population five to six weeks into lockdown, but prevalence remains high: at levels
similar to those observed in late September 2020. Also, the number of COVID-19 cases in
hospitals is higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020. The effects of easing of
social distancing when we transition out of lockdown need to be closely monitored to avoid a
resurgence in infections and renewed pressure on health services.
Date Issued
2021-02-18
Citation
2021
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s).
Publication Status
Published