Introduction: This study describes market trends of flavour capsule cigarettes (FCCs) and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes across 78 countries from 2010 to 2020 and examines country-level factors associated with market shares of these products.
Methods: Market share and retail volume data came from the Euromonitor Passport database and country-level data came from the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Multivariable linear fixed effects panel regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between predictor variables and market share of menthol and FCC, respectively.
Results: The overall market share (i.e., the percentage retail volume out of total retail volume of all cigarette types) increased from 0.23% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2020 for FCCs and decreased from 5.0% to 3.8% for menthol cigarettes. Market shares of FCCs grew most rapidly in the Americas region and among upper-middle-income countries. Market shares of menthol cigarettes remained stable across most regions and were highest in the Western Pacific and Africa regions. The overall market share of FCCs was positively associated with unemployment rate (β=0.28, 95%CI: 0.12 to 0.44, p=0.001), and inversely associated with % of the population aged 15-29 (β=-0.57, 95%CI: -0.98 to -0.15, p=0.008), % of urban population (β=-0.88, 95%CI: -1.28 to -0.48, p<0.001), GDP PPP per capita (β=-0.13, 95%CI: -0.24 to -0.03, p=0.015), and age-standardised prevalence of cigarette smoking (β=-0.93, -1.38 to -0.49, p<0.001). In contrast, the overall market share of menthol was positively associated with urbanicity (β=0.24, 95%CI: 0.08 to 0.40, p=0.003), and negatively associated with unemployment rate (β=-0.09, 95%CI: -0.17 to -0.02, p=0.014).
Conclusions: Global sales of FCCs grew substantially in the last decade, surpassing menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes, which also continued to be high in many regions. There is a need for increased efforts to address flavours and novel tobacco products, features known to appeal to youth.