A joint bayesian space-time model to integrate spatially misaligned air pollution data in R-INLA
File(s)env.2644.pdf (1.75 MB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Forlani, Chiara
Bhatt, Samir
Cameletti, Michela
Krainski, Elias
Blangiardo, Marta
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In air pollution studies, dispersion models provide estimates of concentration at grid level covering the entire spatial domain, and are then calibrated against measurements from monitoring stations. However, these different data sources are misaligned in space and time. If misalignment is not considered, it can bias the predictions. We aim at demonstrating how the combination of multiple data sources, such as dispersion model outputs, ground observations and covariates, leads to more accurate predictions of air pollution at grid level. We consider nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration in Greater London and surroundings for the years 2007‐2011, and combine two different dispersion models. Different sets of spatial and temporal effects are included in order to obtain the best predictive capability. Our proposed model is framed in between calibration and Bayesian melding techniques for data fusion. Unlike other examples, we jointly model the response (concentration level at monitoring stations) and the dispersion model outputs on different scales, accounting for the different sources of uncertainty. Our spatio‐temporal model allows us to reconstruct the latent fields of each model component, and to predict daily pollution concentrations. We compare the predictive capability of our proposed model with other established methods to account for misalignment (e.g. bilinear interpolation), showing that in our case study the joint model is a better alternative.
Date Issued
2020-06-23
Date Acceptance
2020-06-17
Citation
Environmetrics, 2020, 31 (8), pp.1-17
ISSN
1099-095X
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
1
End Page
17
Journal / Book Title
Environmetrics
Volume
31
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/env.2644
Grant Number
MR/M025195/1
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Statistics & Probability
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Mathematics
coregionalization model
data integration
geostatistical model
NO2
SPDE
HEALTH
FIELDS
OUTPUT
Statistics & Probability
01 Mathematical Sciences
05 Environmental Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-06-23