Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study
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Accepted version
Accepted version
Author(s)
Dodd, Peter
Yuen, Courtney
Jayasooriya, Shamanthi
van der Zalm, Marieke
Seddon, James
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background: People who survive tuberculosis continue to experience clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. We aimed to describe the magnitude of this issue by estimating the number of tuberculosis survivors, who could be amenable to intervention. Methods: We estimated the number of people who developed tuberculosis during 1980-2019 and survived until 2020. Numbers surviving treatment were based on country-level data on tuberculosis case notifications reported to the World Health Organization (WHO), excluding people who died during treatment. Numbers surviving untreated tuberculosis were based on the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, with published age-and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios applied. Post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year, using United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios. Findings: Between 1980 and 2019 we estimate that 363 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 -438) million people developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 (95%UI 169 -174) million were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis since 1980 experienced a total of 3.5 (95%UI 3.0 -3.9) billion life-years post-tuberculosis, with survivors of paediatric tuberculosis contributing 12% (95%UI 7 -17%) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 (95%UI 138 -171) million tuberculosis survivors were alive in 2020. The South-East Asia region had the largest proportion of tuberculosis survivors (47%). We estimate that 27 (95%UI 26 -29) million tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 were treated within the past 5 years. Interpretation: The number of tuberculosis survivors alive today is over ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors.
Date Issued
2021-07
Date Acceptance
2020-11-17
Citation
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2021, 21 (7), pp.984-992
ISSN
1473-3099
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
984
End Page
992
Journal / Book Title
Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume
21
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920309191?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Microbiology
1103 Clinical Sciences
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-02-25