Economic evaluation of flexible IGCC plants with integrated membrane reactor modules
File(s)ZhangSMC2014-manuscript-R1.pdf (1.54 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Zhang, Juzheng
Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Kazantzis, Nikolaos
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with embedded membrane reactor modules (IGCC-MR) represents a new technology option for the co-production of electricity and pure hydrogen endowed with enhanced environmental performance capacity. It is an alternative to conventional coaland gas-fired power generation technologies. As a new technology, the IGCC-MR power plant needs to be evaluated in the presence of irreducible regulatory and fuel market uncertainties for the potential deployment of an initial fleet of demonstration plants at the commercial scale. This paper presents the development of a systematic and comprehensive three-step methodological framework to assess the economic value of flexible alternatives in the design and operations of an IGCC-MR plant under the aforementioned sources of uncertainty. The main objective is to demonstrate the potential value enhancements stemming to the long-term economic performance of flexible IGCC-MR project investments, by managing the uncertainty associated with future environmental regulations and fuel costs. The paper provides an overview of promising design flexibility concepts for IGCC-MR power plants and focuses on operational and constructional flexibility. The operational flexibility is realized through the option of a temporary shutdown of the plant with considerations of regulatory and market uncertainties. This option reduces the probability of loss and the downside risk compared to the base case. The constructional flexibility considers installation of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) unit in the plant under three different alternatives: 1) installing CCS in the initial construction phase, 2) retrofitting CCS at a later stage and 3) retrofitting CCS with pre-investment at a later stage. Monte Carlo simulations and financial analysis are used to demonstrate that the most economically advantageous flexibility option is to install CCS in the initial IGCC-MR construction phase.
Date Issued
2014-12-04
Date Acceptance
2014-07-07
Citation
2014 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), 2014, (January), pp.3302-3309
ISBN
978-1-4799-3840-7
ISSN
1062-922X
Publisher
IEEE
Start Page
3302
End Page
3309
Journal / Book Title
2014 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC)
Issue
January
Copyright Statement
© 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Source
Conference Proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Computer Science, Cybernetics
Computer Science, Information Systems
Computer Science
computer simulation
decision making
large-scale systems
systems analysis and design
systems engineering
risk analysis
CO2 CAPTURE
OPTIONS
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2014-10-05
Finish Date
2014-10-08
Coverage Spatial
San Diego, CA, USA