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  5. Evaluating post 2024 election scenarios for the UK based on political party manifestos
 
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Evaluating post 2024 election scenarios for the UK based on political party manifestos
File(s)
journal.pone.0324942.pdf (1.24 MB)
Published version
OA Location
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0324942
Author(s)
Stafford, Richard
Alexander, Jenny
Axon, Stephen
Boakes, Zach
Cantarello, Elena
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Manifestos provide a vision for political parties to enact if elected to government. While manifestos may not be enacted in full, they provide some of the best information for the public in deciding how to vote. However, manifestos tend to contain both enactable policies (e.g., tax cuts) and outcomes or visions of what these policies may achieve for society (e.g., higher disposal income). These outcomes may be deliberately misleading, inaccurate or only a partial picture of how policies will materialise, as it is unlikely a single policy will influence a single outcome. This work creates a complex system model of the economic, societal and environmental landscape of the UK and assesses how it would be affected if political parties enacted their 2024 general election manifesto policies in full. Our model creates a more complete picture of how the UK may look under different parties, rather than examining the manifestos alone (using data solely from manifestos almost 30% of our model’s node values had no information, falling to just 5% after running the models).The model also has the capacity to provide a holistic reflection of the parties manifesto plans, illustrating the impacts each party’s policies could have, should they be enacted. Prior to integrated analysis the most right-wing of the parties studied; Reform UK, aligned strongly with the Conservative party, however, post analysis Reform became a clear outlier. We also demonstrate unintended, misreported or indirect effects of policies. Most notably, parties who had the strongest tax cutting policies resulted in lower average incomes and higher levels of inequality in society, despite the rhetoric provided for these policies in the party manifestos. The results demonstrate the ability to integrate multiple types of information across political, economic, environmental, and social landscapes to help visualise implications of policy and politics more widely.
Editor(s)
Wang, Ching-Hsing
Date Issued
2025-05-22
Date Acceptance
2025-05-04
Citation
PLoS One, 2025, 20 (5)
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/120386
URL
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324942
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324942
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Start Page
e0324942
End Page
e0324942
Journal / Book Title
PLoS One
Volume
20
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2025 Stafford et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
10.1371/journal.pone.0324942
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e0324942
Date Publish Online
2025-05-22
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