Recovering Markov models from closed-loop data
File(s)1706.06359v3.pdf (643.09 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Epperlein, Jonathan P
Zhuk, Sergiy
Shorten, Robert
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Situations in which recommender systems are used to augment decision making are becoming prevalent in many application domains. Almost always, these prediction tools (recommenders) are created with a view to affecting behavioural change. Clearly, successful applications actuating behavioural change, affect the original model underpinning the predictor, leading to an inconsistency. This feedback loop is often not considered in standard machine learning techniques which rely upon machine learning/statistical learning machinery. The objective of this paper is to develop tools that recover unbiased user models in the presence of recommenders. More specifically, we assume that we observe a time series which is a trajectory of a Markov chain R modulated by another Markov chain S, i.e. the transition matrix of R is unknown and depends on the current state of S. The transition matrix of the latter is also unknown. In other words, at each time instant S, selects a transition matrix for R within a given set which consists of known and unknown matrices. The state of S , in turn, depends on the current state of R thus introducing a feedback loop. We propose an Expectation–Maximisation (EM) type algorithm, which estimates the transition matrices of S and R. Experimental results are given to demonstrate the efficacy of the approach.
Date Issued
2019-05-01
Date Acceptance
2018-12-11
Citation
Automatica, 2019, 103 (1), pp.116-125
ISSN
0005-1098
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
116
End Page
125
Journal / Book Title
Automatica
Volume
103
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000465060300014&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Automation & Control Systems
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Engineering
IDENTIFICATION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-02-14