Going multi-viral: synthedemic modelling of internet-based spreading phenomena
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Nika, Marily
Wilding, Thomas
Fiems, Dieter
De Turck, Koen
Knottenbelt, William
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Epidemics of a biological and technological nature pervade modern life. For centuries, scientific research focused on biological epidemics, with simple compartmental epidemiological models emerging as the dominant explanatory paradigm. Yet there has been limited translation of this effort to explain internet-based spreading phenomena. Indeed, single-epidemic models are inadequate to explain the multimodal nature of complex phenomena. In this paper we propose a novel paradigm for modelling internet-based spreading phenomena based on the composition of multiple compartmental epidemiological models. Our approach is inspired by Fourier analysis, but rather than trigonometric wave forms, our components are compartmental epidemiological models. We show results on simulated multiple epidemic data, swine flu data and BitTorrent downloads of a popular music artist. Our technique can characterise these multimodal data sets utilising a parsimonous number of subepidemic models.
Date Issued
2015-02-19
Date Acceptance
2015-02-01
Citation
Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools, 2015, pp.50-57
Publisher
ICST
Start Page
50
End Page
57
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2015 M. Nika et al., licensed to EAI. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unlimited use, distribution and reproduction in any medium so long as the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://eudl.eu/doi/10.4108/icst.valuetools.2014.258221
Source
8th International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2014-12-09
Finish Date
2014-12-11
Date Publish Online
2015-02-19