InvestigateDiscussEstimateAggregate for structured expert judgement.
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This study presents the results of an approach to the prediction of the outcomes of geopolitical events, which we term the IDEA protocol. The participants investigate the background and causal factors behind a question, predict the outcome, and discuss their thinking with others. They then make a second, private and anonymous judgement of the probability of the event, which is subsequently aggregated mathematically. The method performed well relative to both an equally weighted linear pool and a prediction market, and is relatively simple to implement. The results indicate the value of discussion for removing arbitrary linguistic uncertainty and for sharing and debating knowledge, thereby improving the judgements. Weighting individual judgements based on prior performance using Cooke’s method improved group judgements. Even though some of the results are not statistically significant, the study may not have had sufficient power to detect some important effects. Nevertheless, the results help us to formulate conjectures, which can then be investigated further.
Date Issued
2016-06-08
Date Acceptance
2016-06-01
Citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 33 (1), pp.267-279
ISSN
0169-2070
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
267
End Page
279
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume
33
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000391080300019&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Management
Business & Economics
Probability forecasts
Performance
Elicitation
Aggregation
Structured protocol
PREDICTION MARKETS
NOMINAL GROUPS
RISK ANALYSIS
OVERCONFIDENCE
CONFIDENCE
AGGREGATION
ELICITATION
ACCURACY
POLITICS
DELPHI
Publication Status
Published