Optimizing climate related Global development pathways in the Global Calculator using Monte Carlo Markov Chains and genetic algorithms
Author(s)
Garcia, Jorge
Mwabonje, Onesmus
Woods, Jeremy
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Novel pathway optimization methods are presented using the 'Global Calculator’ model and webtool1 to goal-seek within a set of optimization constraints. The Global Calculator (GC) is a model used to forecast climate-related develop pathways for the world’s energy, food and land systems to 2050. The optimization methods enable the GC’s user to specify optimization constraints and return a combination of input parameters that satisfy them. The optimization methods evaluated aim to address the challenge of efficiently navigating the GC's ample parameter space (8e70 parameter combinations) using Monte Carlo Markov Chains and genetic algorithms. The optimization methods are used to calculate an optimal input combination of the ‘lever’ settings in the GC that satisfy twelve input constraints while minimizing cumulative CO2 emissions and maximizing GDP output. This optimal development pathway yields a prediction to 2100 of 2,835 GtCO2 cumulative emissions and a 3.7% increase in GDP with respect to the “business as usual” pathway defined by the International Energy Agency, the IEA’s 6DS scenario, a likely extension of current trends. At a similar or lower ambition level as the benchmark scenarios considered to date (distributed effort, consumer reluctance, low action on forests and consumer activism), the optimal pathway shows a significant decrease in CO2 emissions and increased GDP. The chosen optimization method presented here enables the generation of optimal, user defined/constrained, bespoke pathways to sustainability, relying on the Global Calculator’s whole system approach and assumptions.
Date Issued
2022-10-17
Date Acceptance
2022-10-04
Citation
Carbon Management, 2022, 13 (1), pp.497-510
ISSN
1758-3004
Publisher
Taylor and Francis Group
Start Page
497
End Page
510
Journal / Book Title
Carbon Management
Volume
13
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Global calculator
environmental change
energy modelling
multiobjective optimization
Monte Carlo Markov Chains
Genetic algorithms
SCENARIOS
FUTURE
1801 Law
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-10-17