From intervention to impact: modelling the potential mortality impact achievable by different long-lasting, insecticide-treated net delivery strategies.
Author(s)
Okell, LC
Paintain, LS
Webster, J
Hanson, K
Lines, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The current target of universal access to long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) is 80% coverage to reduce malaria deaths by 75% by 2015. So far, campaigns have been the main channel for large-scale delivery of LLINs, however the World Health Organization has recommended that equal priority should be given to delivery via routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization systems (EPI) to target pregnant women and children from birth. These various channels of LLIN delivery are targeted to children of different ages. Since risk of mortality varies with child age and LLIN effectiveness declines with net age, it was hypothesized that the age at which a child receives a new LLIN, and therefore the delivery channel, is important in optimizing the health impact of a net. METHODS: A simple dynamic mathematical model was developed of delivery and impact of LLINs among children under five years of age and their household members, incorporating data on age-specific malaria death rates, net use by household structure, and net efficacy over time. RESULTS: The presented analysis finds that supplementing a universal mass campaign with extra ANC delivery would achieve a 1.4 times higher mortality reduction than campaign delivery alone, reflecting that children born in the years between campaigns would otherwise have access to old nets or no nets at an age of high risk. The relative advantage of supplementary ANC delivery is still present though smaller if malaria transmission levels are lower or if there is a strong mass effect achieved by mass campaigns. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that LLIN delivery policies must take into account the age of greatest malaria risk. Emphasis should be placed on supporting routine delivery of LLINs to young children as well as campaigns.
Date Issued
2012-09-13
Date Acceptance
2012-09-06
Start Page
327
Journal / Book Title
Malar J
Volume
11
Copyright Statement
© 2012 Okell et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22974140
1475-2875-11-327
Grant Number
G0600719B
G1002387
Subjects
Child, Preschool
Female
Health Services Research
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Insecticide-Treated Bednets
Malaria
Male
Models, Theoretical
Mosquito Control
Pregnancy
Survival Analysis
1108 Medical Microbiology
Tropical Medicine
Publication Status
Published online
Coverage Spatial
England