A GMM approach to estimate the roughness of stochastic volatility
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Published version
Author(s)
Bolko, Anine E
Christensen, Kim
Pakkanen, Mikko S
Veliyev, Bezirgen
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models
driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that
a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent and, under stronger
conditions, asymptotically normally distributed. We inspect the behavior of our procedure
when integrated variance is replaced with a noisy measure of volatility calculated from discrete
high-frequency data. The realized estimator contains sampling error, which skews the fractal
coefficient toward “illusive roughness.” We construct an analytical approach to control the
impact of measurement error without introducing nuisance parameters. In a simulation study,
we demonstrate convincing small sample properties of our approach based both on integrated
and realized variance over the entire memory spectrum. We show the bias correction attenuates
any systematic deviance in the parameter estimates. Our procedure is applied to empirical
high-frequency data from numerous leading equity indexes. With our robust approach the
Hurst index is estimated around 0.05, confirming roughness in stochastic volatility.
driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that
a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent and, under stronger
conditions, asymptotically normally distributed. We inspect the behavior of our procedure
when integrated variance is replaced with a noisy measure of volatility calculated from discrete
high-frequency data. The realized estimator contains sampling error, which skews the fractal
coefficient toward “illusive roughness.” We construct an analytical approach to control the
impact of measurement error without introducing nuisance parameters. In a simulation study,
we demonstrate convincing small sample properties of our approach based both on integrated
and realized variance over the entire memory spectrum. We show the bias correction attenuates
any systematic deviance in the parameter estimates. Our procedure is applied to empirical
high-frequency data from numerous leading equity indexes. With our robust approach the
Hurst index is estimated around 0.05, confirming roughness in stochastic volatility.
Date Issued
2023-08-01
Date Acceptance
2022-06-04
Citation
Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 235 (2), pp.745-778
ISSN
0304-4076
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
745
End Page
778
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
235
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-07-15