Reduced sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity and size to sea surface temperature in a radiative-convective equilibrium environment
File(s)Wang-Toumi2018_Article_ReducedSensitivityOfTropicalCy.pdf (2.32 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Wang, S
Toumi, ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
It has been challenging to project the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, structure and destructive potential changes in a warming climate. Here, we compare the sensitivities of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface warming with and without a pre-storm atmospheric adjustment to an idealized state of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE). Without RCE, we find large responses of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature (SST) changes, which is in line with some previous studies. However, in an environment under RCE, the TC size is almost insensitive to SST changes, and the sensitivity of intensity is also much reduced to 3% °C−1–4% °C−1. Without the pre-storm RCE adjustment, the mean destructive potential measured by the integrated power dissipation increases by about 25% °C−1 during the mature stage. However, in an environment under RCE, the sensitivity of destructive potential to sea surface warming does not change significantly. Further analyses show that the reduced response of TC intensity and size to sea surface warming under RCE can be explained by the reduced thermodynamic disequilibrium between the air boundary layer and the sea surface due to the RCE adjustment. When conducting regional-scale sea surface warming experiments for TC case studies, without any RCE adjustment the TC response is likely to be unrealistically exaggerated. The TC intensity–temperature sensitivity under RCE is very similar to those found in coupled climate model simulations. This suggests global mean intensity projections under climate change can be understood in terms of a thermodynamic response to temperature with only a minor contribution from any changes in large-scale dynamics.
Date Issued
2018-08-01
Date Acceptance
2018-01-30
Citation
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 35 (8), pp.981-993
ISSN
1861-9533
Publisher
Springer Verlag
Start Page
981
End Page
993
Journal / Book Title
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume
35
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© The Authors 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
tropical cyclone
sea surface temperature
radiative-convective equilibrium
intensity
size
destructive potential
HURRICANE INTENSITY
CLIMATE-CHANGE
MODEL
ADJUSTMENT
ATMOSPHERE
DYNAMICS
IMPACT
MOTION
FLUX
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-06-07