Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Pearce, Phoebe
Slade, Raphael
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Since 2010, over 700,000 small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have been installed by households in Great Britain and registered under the feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme. This paper introduces a new agent-based model which simulates this adoption by considering decision-making of individual households based on household income, social network, total capital cost of the PV system, and the payback period of the investment, where the final factor takes into account the economic effect of FiTs. After calibration using Approximate Bayesian Computation, the model successfully simulates observed cumulative and average capacity installed over the period 2010–2016 using historically accurate FiTs; setting different tariffs allows investigation of alternative policy scenarios. Model results show that using simple cost control measures, more installation by October 2016 could have been achieved at lower subsidy cost. The total cost of supporting capacity installed during the period 2010–2016, totalling 2.4 GW, is predicted to be £14 billion, and costs to consumers significantly exceed predictions. The model is further used to project capacity installed up to 2022 for several PV cost, electricity price, and FiT policy scenarios, showing that current tariffs are too low to significantly impact adoption, and falling PV costs are the most important driver of installation.
Date Issued
2018-02-16
Date Acceptance
2018-01-29
Citation
Energy Policy, 2018, 116, pp.95-111
ISSN
0301-4215
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
95
End Page
111
Journal / Book Title
Energy Policy
Volume
116
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
EP/K036734/1
EP/M013200/1
Subjects
MD Multidisciplinary
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-02-15