Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.
Date Issued
2022-07-28
Date Acceptance
2022-07-14
Citation
Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1)
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
13
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022
License URL
Sponsor
Department of Health
Department of Health
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000833074200026&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
n/a
n/a
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
GLOBAL CIRCULATION
RESURGENCE
COVID-19
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 4375