Model analysis of the link between interest rates and crashes
File(s)Int_rate_XII_2016-02.pdf (2.67 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Broga, KM
Viegas, E
Jensen, HJ
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We analyse the effect of distinct levels of interest rates on the stability of the financial network under our
modelling framework. We demonstrate that banking failures are likely to emerge early on under sustained
high interest rates, and at much later stage - with higher probability - under a sustained low interest rate
scenario. Moreover, we demonstrate that those bank failures are of a different nature: high interest rates
tend to result in significantly more bankruptcies associated to credit losses whereas lack of liquidity tends to
be the primary cause of failures under lower rates.
modelling framework. We demonstrate that banking failures are likely to emerge early on under sustained
high interest rates, and at much later stage - with higher probability - under a sustained low interest rate
scenario. Moreover, we demonstrate that those bank failures are of a different nature: high interest rates
tend to result in significantly more bankruptcies associated to credit losses whereas lack of liquidity tends to
be the primary cause of failures under lower rates.
Date Issued
2016-04-06
Date Acceptance
2016-03-26
Citation
Physica A - Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2016, 457, pp.225-238
ISSN
0378-4371
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
225
End Page
238
Journal / Book Title
Physica A - Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications
Volume
457
Copyright Statement
© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Physics
Crisis
Finance
Modelling
Interest rates
FINANCIAL NETWORKS
RISK
Fluids & Plasmas
0105 Mathematical Physics
0206 Quantum Physics
Publication Status
Published