Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multimodel study
File(s)Samset_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf (1.1 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
Date Issued
2016-03-16
Date Acceptance
2016-02-19
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43 (6), pp.2782-2791
ISSN
1944-8007
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
2782
End Page
2791
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
43
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2016 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
precipitation
climate drivers
PDRMIP
BLACK CARBON
HYDROLOGIC-CYCLE
ALTITUDE
DIOXIDE
SPREAD
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published