Detail or uncertainty? Applying global sensitivity analysis to strike a balance in energy system models
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Published version
Author(s)
Yliruka, Maria
Moret, Stefano
Shah, Nilay
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Energy systems modellers often resort to simplified system representations and deterministic model formulations (i.e., not considering uncertainty) to preserve computational tractability. However, reduced levels of detail and neglected uncertainties can both lead to sub-optimal system designs. Herein, we present a novel method that quantitatively compares the impact of detail and uncertainty to guide model development and help prioritisation of the limited computational resources. By considering modelling choices as an additional ‘uncertain’ parameter in a global sensitivity analysis, the method determines their qualitative ranking against conventional input parameters. As a case study, the method is applied to a peer-reviewed heat decarbonisation model for the United Kingdom with the objective of assessing the importance of spatial resolution. The results show that while for the optimal total system cost the impact of spatial resolution is negligible, it is the most important factor determining the capacities of electricity, gas and heat networks.
Date Issued
2023-09
Date Acceptance
2023-05-07
Citation
Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2023, 177, pp.1-22
ISSN
0098-1354
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
22
Journal / Book Title
Computers and Chemical Engineering
Volume
177
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2023.108287
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
108287
Date Publish Online
2023-05-18