Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: introducing DESIRE
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Social and environmental agendas are intricately connected and shape the international policy discourse. To support these discussions, we present a framework for interpreting global scenario outcomes on energy demand and supply-side transitions through the lens of societal well-being and minimum resource requirements. We develop and apply a new model called Decent living standards and the Environment in Scenarios considering Inequality and Resource Efficiency (DESIRE) to fill a critical gap in modelling inequality-growth-efficiency interactions. Utilising bottom–up literature on energy inequality and minimum energy requirements, we analyse system-wide changes from integrated assessment models to assess whether levels of energy consumption in pathways can be consistent with providing decent living standards (DLS) for all, covering three sectors in 173 countries. We apply DESIRE to multiple new sustainable development pathways (SDPs). By 2040, the combination of ambitious inequality reductions, service provisioning efficiency, and higher energy services in the SDPs reduces the global residential and commercial energy deprivation—currently over 5 billion people—by at least 90%. Industry energy gaps are closed, but transport gaps remain. In the SDPs, more than half of the global population—including in low-income countries—achieve living standards more than twice as high as the DLS benchmark for the residential and commercial sector. Energy use beyond DLS across all sectors accounts for about two-thirds of total energy use globally. Efficiency improvements reduce global energy requirements 30%–46% by 2040 in the SDPs (across countries from 17–35 GJ cap−1 in 2020 to 9–23 GJ cap−1), while climate policies reduce CO2 emissions related to energy for DLS to almost zero in 2050, keeping cumulative emissions for DLS for all until 2050 close to the size of the remaining carbon budget to 1.5 °C (at 50% probability). This work illustrates the possibility of pathways that deliver DLS for all while meeting the Paris Agreement.
Date Issued
2025-05-01
Date Acceptance
2025-03-21
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2025, 20 (5)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
20
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
License URL
Identifier
10.1088/1748-9326/adc3ad
Subjects
decent living standards
energy
emissions
inequality
climate
poverty
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 054038
Date Publish Online
2025-04-29