There exists
considerable uncertainty over
both
shale
and conventional
gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane
emissions asso
ciated with shale gas extraction
and its possible role in mitigating
climate change
.
This study
uses a multi
-
region energy system model, TIAM
(TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)
,
to
consider the impact of a range of
conventional and shale gas
cost
and
avai
lability assessments on mitigation
scenarios
aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2
°C
in 2100, with
a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to
the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to
0.4%), and the mitigation
cost increases by 1
-
3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale
gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to
investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected
leakage rates,
are also considered;
and
are
each found
to
have the potential to increase the cost
and reduce feasibility of meeting global
temperature goals. We conclude
that the
extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort req
uired to
mitigate climate change under global
ly
coordinated
action, but could increase
required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.