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  4. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes
 
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Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes
File(s)
hess-22-727-2018.pdf (12.27 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Cross, David
Onof, CJ
Winter, Hugo
Bernardara, Pietro
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett–Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.
Date Issued
2018-01-26
Date Acceptance
2017-12-03
Citation
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, 22, pp.727-756
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/56448
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-727-2018
ISSN
1027-5606
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
727
End Page
756
Journal / Book Title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume
22
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Subjects
0406 Physical Geography And Environmental Geoscience
0905 Civil Engineering
0907 Environmental Engineering
Environmental Engineering
Publication Status
Published
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