Purpose
This study compares the environmental impacts of transitioning from a business-as-usual (BaU) internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) pathway to one adopting battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Qatar from 2022 to 2050. The analysis is based on geographically representative empirical data, focusing exclusively on the light-duty, personal vehicle sector. The research explores environmental performance trends, uncertainties, and potential implications of transitioning from ICEVs to BEVs within the Qatar National Vision (QNV) 2030 framework.

Methods
Utilising the ReCiPe method, this time-dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) assessed a range of relevant environmental impact categories: global warming potential, particulate matter, human toxicity, acidification and resource depletion. This analysis incorporates different light-duty vehicle (LDV) types such as sedans, sport utility vehicle (SUVs) and sport vehicles. The impacts of potential technological advancements, such as in fuel efficiency for ICEVs and charging electricity supply and/or battery technology for the BEVs, were included to provide a more encompassing view of the environmental implications of both vehicle types.

Results and discussion
Decreasing environmental impact for ICEVs and BEVs is observed, with BEVs’ greater potential in reducing Qatar’s transport sector’s carbon footprint. Uncertainties emerged as this potential decrease was not seen in all impact categories, nor vehicle technology or timeframe. This stresses the BEV’s transition importance of production location and energy sources. This was observed for the carbon footprint and overarching environmental impact of battery production, exacerbated in regions reliant on fossil fuel electricity. Qatar, endowed with substantial fossil fuel reserves, relies on natural gas for electricity provision; therefore, the potential benefits of introducing BEVs are limited without strong shifts to renewables. Further research in vehicle production, disposal and technological advancements will prove essential, especially in a maturing sector like electric vehicle production and processing.

Conclusions
BEVs have the potential to reduce the environmental impacts of Qatar’s transport sector. Yet, the short payback period for newer BEVs is linked with the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, emphasising the dual challenge for Qatar with its reliance on fossil fuels. Considering environmental, economic and societal facets, a transition taking into account all facets of sustainability and not purely the introduction of BEVs is imperative in aligning with Qatar’s 2030 sustainable vision.

Recommendations
A clear understanding of the socio-economic and environmental aspects of the ICEV-BEV transition is urgently required, emphasising production, disposal and technological innovations. Exploring alternative batteries and recycling methods can offer pathways to mitigate environmental concerns associated with BEVs. Regions like Qatar are underrepresented in the available literature, yet should be part of the research on sustainable transitions to provide insights on the opportunity and co-benefits that arise from the development of relevant sustainability transition planning.