Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility
File(s)roughvol_jfec_rev3.pdf (868.72 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Bennedsen, Mikkel
Lunde, Asger
Pakkanen, Mikko S
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized facts often found in volatility data. Our prime model is based on the so-called Brownian semistationary process and we derive a number of theoretical properties of this process, relevant to volatility modeling. Applying the models to realized volatility measures covering a vast panel of assets, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that time series of realized measures of volatility are both rough and very persistent. Lastly, we illustrate the utility of the models in an extensive forecasting study; we find that the models proposed in this paper outperform a wide array of benchmarks considerably, indicating that it pays off to exploit both roughness and persistence in volatility forecasting.
Date Issued
2022
Date Acceptance
2020-12-03
Citation
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2022, 20 (5), pp.961-1006
ISSN
1479-8409
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
961
End Page
1006
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Econometrics
Volume
20
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Financial Econometrics following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/jfec/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa049/6124197
Identifier
http://arxiv.org/abs/1610.00332v2
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-01-30