A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts
File(s)
Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.
Date Issued
2021-11-22
Date Acceptance
2021-10-05
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11, pp.1055-1062
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
1055
End Page
1062
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
11
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01206-3
Grant Number
820846
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
PARIS AGREEMENT
ENERGY
TRANSPARENCY
INDICATORS
SCIENCE
MODELS
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-22