The policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential
File(s)
Author(s)
Grant, Neil
Hawkes, Adam
Mittal, Shivika
Gambhir, Ajay
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Many low-carbon scenarios rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet decarbonization goals. The feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment is highly uncertain, and existing scenarios have been criticized for overreliance on CDR. We conduct an expert survey on the feasible potential for CDR via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and afforestation. We use the survey results to represent uncertainty in future CDR availability and explore the implications in an integrated assessment model. Stochastic optimization demonstrates that uncertainty in future CDR availability provides a strong rationale to increase near-term rates of decarbonization. In scenarios with high CDR uncertainty, emissions are reduced by an additional 10 GtCO2e in 2030 compared with scenarios with no consideration of CDR uncertainty. This highlights the urgent need to increase ambition contained in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030, to get the world on track to deliver 1.5°C and to hedge against an uncertain future CDR potential.
Date Issued
2021-10
Date Acceptance
2021-09-08
Citation
Joule, 2021, 5 (10), pp.2593-2605
ISSN
2542-4351
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
2593
End Page
2605
Journal / Book Title
Joule
Volume
5
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435121004323?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
820846
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-20