Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings
File(s)journal.pcbi.1008830.pdf (2.68 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. These methods have been successfully used in numerous applications such as social media and earthquake modelling, but are not yet widespread in epidemiology. By using domain-specific knowledge, we can both recreate transmission curves for malaria in China and Eswatini and disentangle the proportion of cases which are imported from those that are community based.
Date Issued
2021-04-01
Date Acceptance
2021-02-23
Citation
PLoS Computational Biology, 2021, 17 (4), pp.1-18
ISSN
1553-734X
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Start Page
1
End Page
18
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Computational Biology
Volume
17
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2021 Unwin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000636466800005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Biochemical Research Methods
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical & Computational Biology
POINT
Science & Technology
TRANSMISSION
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e1008830
Date Publish Online
2021-04-01