State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling
Author(s)
Morariu-Patrichi, Maxime
Pakkanen, Mikko S
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes
processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that,
reciprocally, switches state when there is an event in the counting process. We first establish the existence
and uniqueness of state-dependent Hawkes processes and explain how they can be simulated. Then we
develop maximum likelihood estimation methodology for parametric specifications of the process. We
apply state-dependent Hawkes processes to high-frequency limit order book data, allowing us to build
a novel model that captures the feedback loop between the order flow and the shape of the limit order
book. We estimate two specifications of the model, using the bid–ask spread and the queue imbalance
as state variables, and find that excitation effects in the order flow are strongly state-dependent. Additionally, we find that the endogeneity of the order flow, measured by the magnitude of excitation, is also
state-dependent, being more pronounced in disequilibrium states of the limit order book.
processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that,
reciprocally, switches state when there is an event in the counting process. We first establish the existence
and uniqueness of state-dependent Hawkes processes and explain how they can be simulated. Then we
develop maximum likelihood estimation methodology for parametric specifications of the process. We
apply state-dependent Hawkes processes to high-frequency limit order book data, allowing us to build
a novel model that captures the feedback loop between the order flow and the shape of the limit order
book. We estimate two specifications of the model, using the bid–ask spread and the queue imbalance
as state variables, and find that excitation effects in the order flow are strongly state-dependent. Additionally, we find that the endogeneity of the order flow, measured by the magnitude of excitation, is also
state-dependent, being more pronounced in disequilibrium states of the limit order book.
Date Issued
2022-03-01
Date Acceptance
2021-09-13
Citation
Quantitative Finance, 2022, 22 (3), pp.563-583
ISSN
1469-7688
Publisher
Routledge
Start Page
563
End Page
583
Journal / Book Title
Quantitative Finance
Volume
22
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Business & Economics
Mathematics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
Hawkes process
High-frequency financial data
Market microstructure
Limit order book
Maximum likelihood estimation
Endogeneity
POINT-PROCESSES
TIME
REPRESENTATION
SIMULATION
STABILITY
DYNAMICS
BEHAVIOR
MARKET
IMPACT
PRICE
q-fin.ST
q-fin.ST
q-fin.TR
stat.AP
60G55, 62M09, 62P05
01 Mathematical Sciences
14 Economics
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Finance
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-12-07