Threat to the point: Improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Murray, Kris A
Verde Arregoitia, Luis D
Davidson, Ana
Di Marco, Moreno
Di Fonzo, Martina MI
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Comparative extinction risk analysis is a common approach for assessing the relative plight of biodiversity and making conservation recommendations. However, the usefulness of such analyses for conservation practice has been questioned. One reason for underperformance may be that threats arising from global environmental changes (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species, climate change) are often overlooked, despite being widely regarded as proximal drivers of species' endangerment. We explore this problem by (i) reviewing the use of threats in this field and (ii) quantitatively investigating the effects of threat exclusion on the interpretation and potential application of extinction risk model results. We show that threat variables are routinely (59%) identified as significant predictors of extinction risk, yet while most studies (78%) include extrinsic factors of some kind (e.g., geographic or bioclimatic information), the majority (63%) do not include threats. Despite low overall usage, studies are increasingly employing threats to explain patterns of extinction risk. However, most continue to employ methods developed for the analysis of heritable traits (e.g., body size, fecundity), which may be poorly suited to the treatment of nonheritable predictors including threats. In our global mammal and continental amphibian extinction risk case studies, omitting threats reduced model predictive performance, but more importantly (i) reduced mechanistic information relevant to management; (ii) resulted in considerable disagreement in species classifications (12% and 5% for amphibians and mammals, respectively, translating to dozens and hundreds of species); and (iii) caused even greater disagreement (20-60%) in a downstream conservation application (species ranking). We conclude that the use of threats in comparative extinction risk analysis is important and increasing but currently in the early stages of development. Priorities for future studies include improving uptake, availability, quality and quantification of threat data, and developing analytical methods that yield more robust, relevant and tangible products for conservation applications.
Date Issued
2013-12-25
Date Acceptance
2013-08-13
Citation
Global Change Biology, 2013, 20 (2), pp.483-494
ISSN
1354-1013
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
483
End Page
494
Journal / Book Title
Global Change Biology
Volume
20
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Murray, K. A., Verde Arregoitia, L. D., Davidson, A. , Di Marco, M. and Di Fonzo, M. M. (2014), Threat to the point: improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action. Glob Change Biol, 20: 483-494., which has been published in final form at https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12366
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23966334
Subjects
Biodiversity
IUCN Red List
declines
extrinsic traits
intrinsic traits
management
prediction
prioritization
threats
Amphibians
Animals
Biodiversity
Conservation of Natural Resources
Endangered Species
Extinction, Biological
Mammals
Models, Biological
Risk Assessment
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2013-08-22