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  4. Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling for the assessment of short-term exposure to particle pollution in urban areas
 
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Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling for the assessment of short-term exposure to particle pollution in urban areas
File(s)
Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling for the assessment of short-term exposure to particle pollution in urban areas..pdf (2.16 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Pirani, M
Gulliver, J
Fuller, G
Blangiardo, M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper describes a Bayesian hierarchical approach to predict short-term concentrations of particle pollution in an urban environment, with application to inhalable particulate matter (PM10) in Greater London. We developed and compared several spatiotemporal models that differently accounted for factors affecting the spatiotemporal properties of particle concentrations. We considered two main source contributions to ambient measurements: (i) the long-range transport of the secondary fraction of particles, which temporal variability was described by a latent variable derived from rural concentrations; and (ii) the local primary component of particles (traffic- and non-traffic-related) captured by the output of the dispersion model ADMS-Urban, which site-specific effect was described by a Bayesian kriging. We also assessed the effect of spatiotemporal covariates, including type of site, daily temperature to describe the seasonal changes in chemical processes affecting local PM10 concentrations that are not considered in local-scale dispersion models and day of the week to account for time-varying emission rates not available in emissions inventories. The evaluation of the predictive ability of the models, obtained via a cross-validation approach, revealed that concentration estimates in urban areas benefit from combining the city-scale particle component and the long-range transport component with covariates that account for the residual spatiotemporal variation in the pollution process.
Date Issued
2013
Date Acceptance
2013-09-24
Citation
Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology, 2013, N/A (N/A), pp.N/A-
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/25972
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1038/jes.2013.85
ISSN
1559-064X
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Start Page
N/A
End Page
327
Journal / Book Title
Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology
Volume
N/A
Issue
N/A
Copyright Statement
© 2013, Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
License URL
http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Toxicology
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH, SCI
TOXICOLOGY
Bayesian analysis
exposure modelling
geostatistics
time series
urban particle pollution
PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION
GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS
CONTRASTING URBAN
NUMERICAL-MODELS
ADMS-URBAN
SPACE
PM10
DOWNSCALER
ADMISSIONS
LOCATIONS
Publication Status
Published
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