A multi-fidelity modelling approach to the statistical inference of the equivalent initial flaw size distribution for multiple-site damage
File(s)Manuscript.pdf (1.08 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Morse, Llewellyn
Sharif Khodaei, Zahra
Aliabadi, MH
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A new methodology for the statistical inference of the Equivalent Initial Flaw Size distribution (EIFSD) using the Dual Boundary Element Method (DBEM) is proposed. As part of the inference, Bayesian updating is used to calibrate the EIFS based on data obtained from simulated routine inspections of a structural component from a fleet of aircraft. An incremental crack growth procedure making use of the DBEM is employed for the modelling of the simultaneous growth of cracks in the structure due to fatigue. Multi-fidelity modelling, in the form of Co-Kriging, is used to create surrogate models that act in place of the DBEM model for the expensive Monte Carlo sampling procedure required for the statistical inference of the EIFSD. The proposed methodology is applied to a numerical example featuring a long fuselage lap joint splice in presence of multiple site damage (MSD). Results show that the EIFSD can be accurately estimated with data from 50 inspections. The employed Co-Kriging models proved to be effective substitutes for the DBEM model, providing significant reductions in the computational cost associated with the implementation of the proposed statistical inference methodology.
Date Issued
2019-03-01
Date Acceptance
2018-11-09
Citation
International Journal of Fatigue, 2019, 120 (1), pp.329-341
ISSN
0142-1123
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
329
End Page
341
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Fatigue
Volume
120
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142112318305255?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
EP/R511547/1
Subjects
Equivalent Initial Flaw Size
Boundary Element Method
Fatigue Crack Growth
Multiple Site Damage
Multi-fidelity modelling
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-11-10