Cross wedge rolling (CWR) is an innovative roll forming process, used widely in the transportation industry. It has high production efficiency, consistent quality and efficient material usage. However, the continual occurrence of crack formation in the centre of the workpiece is a critical problem excluding the CWR technique from more safety-critical applications, in particular, aerospace components. The mechanisms of central fracture formation are still unclear because of a combination of complicated stress and strain states at various stages of CWR. Thus, the aim of this study is to understand the stress/strain distribution and evolution during the CWR process and identify the key variables which determine central crack formation. A comprehensive investigation was then conducted to simulate 27 experimental cases. The stress and strain distributions in the workpiece were evaluated by finite element analysis. Various damage models from literature were applied and compared. A new fracture criterion was proposed, which was able to successfully determine the central crack formation in all 27 experimental cases. This criterion can be applied in CWR tool and process design, and the enhanced understanding may enable the adoption of CWR by the aerospace industry.