Flexibility and real options analysis in emergency medical services systems using decision rules and multi-stage stochastic programming
File(s)TRE2017-manuscript_R3-Clean.pdf (8.45 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Zhang, Sizhe
Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A novel approach to EMS infrastructure systems design, planning, and operations under long-term uncertainty is introduced based on multi-stage stochastic programming and decision rules, accounting for strategic flexibility (also known as real options – RO). Different from standard RO analysis, the approach mimics real-world decision-making by exercising flexibility based on conditional-go decision rules. The objective is to minimize the expected total costs over the system’s life cycle, and the outputs are the optimal initial configuration and decision rules. A flexible solution provides lower expected cost than stochastically optimal rigid solutions, especially valuable when required incident coverage rate is >95%.
Date Issued
2017-11-01
Date Acceptance
2017-09-06
Citation
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2017, 107, pp.120-140
ISSN
1366-5545
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
120
End Page
140
Journal / Book Title
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review
Volume
107
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000413388600007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Economics
Engineering, Civil
Operations Research & Management Science
Transportation
Transportation Science & Technology
Business & Economics
Engineering
Flexibility in engineering design
Real options analysis
Emergency medical services
Multi-stage stochastic programming
Decision rules
COVERING LOCATION MODEL
FACILITY LOCATION
NETWORK DESIGN
VEHICLE LOCATION
TRANSPORTATION
RELIABILITY
CONGESTION
FRAMEWORK
TAXONOMY
POLICIES
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-10-09