Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria
File(s)MappingTheBaselinePrevalence.pdf (2.5 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Introduction: The baseline endemicity profile of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a keybenchmark for planning control programmes, monitoring their impact on transmissionand assessing the feasibility of achieving elimination. Presented in this work is themodelled serological and parasitological prevalence of LF prior to the scale-up of massdrug administration (MDA) in Nigeria using a machine learning based approach.Methods: LF prevalence data generated by the Nigeria Lymphatic Filariasis ControlProgramme during country-wide mapping surveys conducted between 2000 and 2013were used to build the models. The dataset comprised of 1103 community-levelsurveys based on the detection of filarial antigenaemia using rapidimmunochromatographic card tests (ICT) and 184 prevalence surveys testing for thepresence of microfilaria (Mf) in blood. Using a suite of climate and environmentalcontinuous gridded variables and compiled site-level prevalence data, a quantileregression forest (QRF) model was fitted for both antigenaemia and microfilaraemia LFprevalence. Model predictions were projected across a continuous 5 × 5 km griddedmap of Nigeria. The number of individuals potentially infected by LF prior to MDAinterventions was subsequently estimated.Results: Maps presented predict a heterogeneous distribution of LF antigenaemia andmicrofilaraemia in Nigeria. The North-Central, North-West, and South-East regionsdisplayed the highest predicted LF seroprevalence, whereas predicted Mf prevalencewas highest in the southern regions. Overall, 8.7 million and 3.3 million infections werepredicted for ICT and Mf, respectively.Conclusions: QRF is a machine learning-based algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data and fitting complex relationships between response and predictorvariables. Our models provide a benchmark through which the progress of ongoing LF control efforts can be monitored.
Date Issued
2019-09-16
Date Acceptance
2019-08-22
Citation
Parasites & Vectors, 2019, 12
ISSN
1756-3305
Publisher
BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title
Parasites & Vectors
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license,
and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/
publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license,
and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/
publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Parasitology
Tropical Medicine
Lymphatic filariasis
Machine learning
Antigenaemia
Microfilaraemia
QUANTILE REGRESSION
MODEL
SCHISTOSOMIASIS
TRANSMISSION
ANTIGENEMIA
PREDICTION
DYNAMICS
TOOLS
RISK
Antigenaemia
Lymphatic filariasis
Machine learning
Microfilaraemia
Mycology & Parasitology
Tropical Medicine
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
440 (2019)