Eliciting and combining decision criteria using a limited palette of utility functions and uncertainty distributions: illustrated by application to Pest Risk Analysis
File(s)RA RBMMpaper 130529 f accepted.pdf (454.99 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely-rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented which aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules which express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In Pest Risk Analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO) arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs which are consistent and easy to understand, criticise, compare and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution which they used in the risk assessments
Date Issued
2013-07-08
Date Acceptance
2013-07-08
Citation
Risk Analysis, 2013, 34 (1), pp.4-16
ISSN
0272-4332
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
4
End Page
16
Journal / Book Title
Risk Analysis
Volume
34
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Holt, J., Leach, A. W., Schrader, G., Petter, F., MacLeod, A., van der Gaag, D. J., Baker, R. H. A. and Mumford, J. D. (2014), Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis, 34: 4–16, which has been published in final form at https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12089. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Subjects
Risk matrix
Bayesian network
Risk assessment
Decision making
Quarantine plant health
Plant biosecurity
Publication Status
Published