Contact rate epidemic control of COVID-19: an equilibrium view
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Published version
Author(s)
Elie, Romuald
Hubert, Emma
Turinici, Gabriel
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals’ decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an individual can diminish his/her contact rate in order to avoid getting infected, but this effort comes at a social cost. If each individual lowers his/her contact rate, the epidemic vanishes faster, but the effort cost may be high. A Mean Field Nash equilibrium at the population level is formed, resulting in a lower effective transmission rate of the virus. We prove theoretically that equilibrium exists and compute it numerically. However, this equilibrium selects a sub-optimal solution in comparison to the societal optimum (a centralized decision respected fully by all individuals), meaning that the cost of anarchy is strictly positive. We provide numerical examples and a sensitivity analysis, as well as an extension to a SEIR compartmental model to account for the relatively long latent phase of the COVID-19 disease. In all the scenario considered, the divergence between the individual and societal strategies happens both before the peak of the epidemic, due to individuals’ fears, and after, when a significant propagation is still underway.
Date Issued
2020-06-19
Date Acceptance
2020-05-29
Citation
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 2020, 15, pp.1-35
ISSN
0973-5348
Publisher
EDP Sciences
Start Page
1
End Page
35
Journal / Book Title
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
Volume
15
Copyright Statement
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2020. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.mmnp-journal.org/articles/mmnp/abs/2020/01/mmnp200091/mmnp200091.html
Subjects
0102 Applied Mathematics
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
35
Date Publish Online
2020-06-19