News sentiment and sovereign credit risk
File(s)SovereignCDS_Final[12].pdf (690.87 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Cathcart, Lara
Gotthelf, Nina
Uhl, Matthias
Yining, Shi
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induce a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure whereas its impact on the default component lead to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.
Date Issued
2020-03-01
Date Acceptance
2019-04-08
Citation
European Financial Management, 2020, 26 (2), pp.261-287
ISSN
1354-7798
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
261
End Page
287
Journal / Book Title
European Financial Management
Volume
26
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eufm.12219. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Business & Economics
CDS
credit risk premium
media tone
sovereign risk
INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY
DEFAULT RISK
MEDIA
SPREADS
DETERMINANTS
DYNAMICS
MARKET
BANK
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
Finance
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-04-26