A global parametric rain model for landfalling tropical cyclones: a case study for the U.S.
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Lau, King Heng
Czernichow, Sacha
Sparks, Nathan
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is a crucial driver of TC hazards, yet estimating TC rain risk from observations is hindered by their relative infrequency. Parametric TC rain models coupled with stochastic TC risk models provide an efficient mean for quantifying such risk. This study introduces a new parametric rain model for landfalling TCs, integrated into the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS), a statistical-thermodynamic global TC hazard model. Using a 10,000-year simulation, IRIS reproduces observed global return periods of landfall rain rate, storm-total rain volume, and lifetime rain production over land. Over the United States, the model captures observed rainfall climatology and event accumulations with skill comparable to or slightly exceeding existing parametric models. The capability of the model for climate projection is demonstrated through a United States case study using a storyline approach that isolates thermodynamic effects, specifically increases in potential intensity and total column water, under a +2 °C global warming scenario. The pre-landfall maximum azimuthal mean rain rate of United States hurricanes increases by 20.1%, while contraction of the rain field limits the storm-total rain volume increase to 3.9%. Across their lifetimes over land, hurricanes produce 14.6% more rainfall. Spatially, warming enhances rain rates and accumulations across the eastern and southern United States, with the largest absolute increases in the southeast but the strongest relative increases inland and in the northeast, indicating greater inland and poleward penetration of hurricane rainfall under warming.
Date Issued
2026-04-29
Date Acceptance
2026-04-02
Citation
Natural Hazards, 2026, 122 (10)
ISSN
0921-030X
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Journal / Book Title
Natural Hazards
Volume
122
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/42078552
PII: 8150
Subjects
Climate change
Flood risk
Tropical cyclone
Tropical cyclone precipitation
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Article Number
415
Date Publish Online
2026-04-29