Exchange rates and sovereign risk
File(s)FXSOV_SSRN_Joint.pdf (1.05 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Della Corte, Pasquale
Sarno, Lucio
Schmeling, Maik
Wagner, Christian
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
An increase in a country’s sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is ac-companied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.
Date Issued
2022-08-01
Date Acceptance
2021-04-05
Citation
Management Science, 2022, 68 (8), pp.5557-6354
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
5557
End Page
6354
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
68
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2021, INFORMS.
Identifier
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4115
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
exchange rates
currency risk premium
currency options
sovereign risk
CDS spreads
TERM STRUCTURE
CURRENCY RISK
CROSS-SECTION
PREMIA
HETEROSKEDASTICITY
SPREADS
DEFAULT
MARKETS
PREDICT
PRICE
Operations Research
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-01