Surgeon age in relation to prognosis after esophageal cancer resection
File(s)MS Surgeon age_manuscript_ann surg_merged.docx (58.56 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Markar, Sheraz R
Mackenzie, Hugh
Lagergren, Pernilla
Lagergren, Jesper
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: It was hypothesized that patient survival improves with increasing surgeon age up to an age where it then decreases. BACKGROUND: Experience, physical and psychological abilities required for esophagectomy may change with increasing surgeon age. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included all patients having undergone esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in Sweden in 1987 to 2010, with follow-up until 2016. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) analysis was performed to estimate the relation between surgeon age and 90-day mortality, all-cause, and disease-specific 5-year mortality. Change-points in surgeon age identified by the RA-CUSUM were then analyzed in relation to mortality using multivariable Cox regression, providing hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, tumor stage, tumor histology, neoadjuvant therapy, surgeon volume, and calendar year. RESULTS: Among 139 surgeons performing 1761 esophagectomies, RA-CUSUM analysis of 90-day mortality showed change-points at 43 years (downward deflection) and at 56 years (upward deflection). Both all-cause and disease-specific 5-year mortality had corresponding change-points at 52 years and 56 years. Compared with surgeon age 52 to 55 years, surgeon age ≤51 years was associated with increased 90-day mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.01-2.90) and 5-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.02-1.43), and surgeon age ≥56 years showed increased 90-day mortality (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.38-4.13), 5-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.08-1.55), and disease-specific 5-year mortality (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: Surgeon age ≤51 and ≥56 years may increase short- and long-term mortality after esophagectomy for cancer.
Date Issued
2018-07
Date Acceptance
2018-07-01
Citation
Annals of Surgery, 2018, 268 (1), pp.100-105
ISSN
0003-4932
Publisher
Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Start Page
100
End Page
105
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Surgery
Volume
268
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc. This is a non-final version of an article published in final form in Annals of Surgery, July 2018, Volume 268, Issue 1, p100–105, https://dx.doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000002260
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28394868
Subjects
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Surgery
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States